Is this the right time to buy a home in the Charleston area?
I don’t have a crystal ball. What I have is experience selling homes in Charleston – and a lot of data. If trends and history give us good guidance, we have an actionable picture of the future in home sales and home values in Charleston.
LAST YEAR –
- great inventory of homes, record number of homes for sale, record “months of inventory”
- builders sit idle hoping just to keep in business long enough to recover when the sun finally comes out
- really LOW interest rates
- numerous shockingly low priced homes clutter the market, driven down by distressed properties
- motivated, depressed sellers, feel trapped , willing to cut about any deal – even bring cash to the table to get their homes sold
- buyers firmly in the driver’s seat often making seemingly outlandish demands of sellers
- banks backlogged with offers, burdened with defaults, ready to take deep losses on bank owned homes just to get them sold fast
THIS YEAR –
- inventories have dropped fast even though many, previously sidelined sellers are starting to list their homes for sale
- builder confidence, local and national, is improving. Builders are building “spec” homes again
- interest rates remain low, maybe will be low for some time BUT if inflation starts, all bets are off
- the extreme bargains have almost dried up. Yes, a few aberrant fire sales pop up now and then but they are the exception rather than the rule
- seller confidence is rising. Fewer sellers feel that their homes are destined to sit unsold unless they take a huge loss or throw in their first born
- bank owned homes are out there, now in fewer numbers. Savvy investors, on the prowl for these properties, have been moving in with cash deals
- buyers remain in the driver’s seat yet offers are more balanced. Sellers are still making solid concessions but now with far fewer give away deals in the mix
THE NEAR FUTURE
I can’t tell the future. I can tell you that most Realtors who study our market are convinced of the following:
- Inventories will reach balance (5,000-6,000 active listings on the MLS) in under 3 years in Charleston. That means that the pendulum is shifting gradually in the direction of a balanced seller to buyer market. With each degree of shift, the buyer looses power and the seller gains power. In 3 years or less, the current buyers’ market will go away.
- with the historic average interest rate around 8%, the likelihood that rates will stay at/near record lows for long is highly improbable – almost impossible. In theory, a balanced market runs in tandem with balanced (historic average) interest rates. The regression to average rates should be clear cut to most buyers but it’s not. Why not? The home buyer of today has, in recent memory, only low rates to reference. The pre-market crash rates were artificially skewed low because of government policies that helped cause the crash. Don’t expect the government to promote unnaturally low rates once the market is back on track.
- home prices in Charleston will rise. Sales in the most robust areas, such as Mt Pleasant, are already indicating rising prices. Home values in other areas will rise as well – perhaps more slowly. The bottom is in with the sole hold back to rising prices limited to the influence of distressed inventories. That problem will fade, too.
Whether the time is right to buy a home is a complex personal decision. I can offer logic, data and reason to help. As you consider your decision, consider this:
Every point of interest rate increase and every tick up of in home values translates into less purchasing power for you. Dropping inventories mean, not only reduced choices, but also decreasing buyer bargaining power and increasing home prices.
For now, the home sale is still on; but, like the sun setting over the beautiful Charleston Harbor, the door buster discounts are starting to dip slowly below the horizon






